Make Believe Mailer #175: J-Polymarket 2026

Contrary to how it has been talked about up to this point, the Grammy’s Best Asian Pop Music Performance honor doesn’t exist just to make people angry.

Since the Recording Academy of the United States announced the new category back in June, people have been steaming about…basically every aspect of it. The criteria favors East Asian acts. It feels like a consolation prize after groups like BTS weren’t awarded any of the major trophies. What even is Asia?

Then BTS decided not to submit any of its music for consideration this year seemingly because of an award that, some of us might say, looked like it was invented just to give them an easy win. THAT then became the dominant point of discourse.

Yet the Academy is still going to give this thing out…and if the submissions are anything to go by, a lot of Japanese acts are vying for it.

The first round of voting for the 69th Grammy Awards is underway, which means information about what artists and works were submitted for the categories is trickling out. There’s no definitive official list, but based off information compiled by journalists like Jeff Benjamin along with lists detailing those rolling out “For Your Consideration” campaigns (of which I’ve gotten like two dozen, despite being able to do jackshit with them) there’s a pretty good list of whose putting themselves forward for what categories.

And wow…there’s a lot of J-pop names here.

Electric Bloom reported that, when it comes to the Best Asian Pop Music Performance category, Japanese acts lead the way with 11 recorded submitting artists. Of course exact details of how many other acts from different Asian countries are submitting isn’t totally known…but it appears none of the major K-pop companies submitted anything, which if true would probably mean J-pop leads the way in submissions for this honor (and, to note quickly, some artists aren’t just settling for this category alone).

Let’s ignore the talk around this category and what actually winning an trophy clouded in controversy even means…I’m not shocked to see the Japanese industry embracing the Best Asian Pop Music Performance category. This country’s music business is obsessed with the Grammys, to the point where they went and made their own version of it1. I’ve heard no shortage of artists themselves state their dream is to win a Grammy — Yurufuwa Gang among them! — along with rumors of other artists who took a Grammy campaign very seriously.

So here’s a golden opportunity for a lot of pop acts who might otherwise not have a real shot at hearing their name called in Hollywood now having a realistic chance. On top of that…there’s pretty good odds a J-pop nominee wins this. Call me cynical, but I initially interpreted this category as the “hey here ya go BTS” honor, but them deciding not to submit anything instantly made it interesting. Now, it looks like a lot of K-pop acts who probably would be the favorites with BTS out of the way are also not in the mix.

A Japanese act could very well capture this award in its first year.

So, of the names we know have submitted so far…who is the best bet to go to the next step?

It’s time for J-Polymarket.

Let’s set the odds on all the Japanese artists we know vying for this award, along with a couple who I personally think also submitted. Here’s the criteria I’m working with:

• Legacy — Let’s give the Grammy voter of 2026 the benefit of the doubt and assume they’ll do a Google search of the submitted artists before selecting. Does the artist have enough clout in the Japanese music industry to turn heads?

• International Presence — Has the voter heard of them before? Have they accomplished notable things overseas? What’s English-language coverage of them look like? Any other global details that could make them stand out?

• Politicking — A central component to any awards season is campaigning. Artists who have taken steps to specifically work with the Grammy people or to sing their praises go a long way (example: members of Filipino pop acts SB19 and BINI recently sat down with Billboard to celebrate the maligned Best Asian Pop Music Performance category. Strategic! I’m putting 70 percent odds one of them gets nominated). Networking and appearing at industry events also counts here.

Oh, and maybe most importantly…I will not be taking into account the quality of the song submitted to the Grammy Awards because history has demonstrated the voters themselves have never considered it either. Some of these J-pop tunes are real stinkers, but that will not impact the odds because one glance at any list of past winners on Wikipedia reveals some truly noxious award recipients. What do you mean “Use Somebody” was Record Of The Year once??? I get BTS’ anger, I don’t like “Butter” but it’s at least as good as “Don’t Worry, Be Happy.”

From the above, I’ll create the odds each submission has at being nominated for Best Asian Pop Music Performance. Do not think too much on how these percentages were calculated or if they make sense, think of it like any betting market or sports book where you just assume “oh they must know something I don’t, all on the Rays!” You can take these numbers to the bank2.

Let’s tackle these alphabetically, starting with a real wild one.

AKB48 (“Suki-ish”)

Legacy — The best-selling female artist in J-pop history, with a run of number-one singles that looks staggering when laid out in chart form. That the biggie-sized project has done it for over 20 years now makes it even more impressive. Actually understanding Japanese entertainment context makes them an even more essential part of the country’s musical story in the 21st century (“everything is AKB”), but even just taking in those numbers might be enough. Though no worries for voters who want to learn more…they are one of the most well documented idol projects of the century.

International Presence — Unfortunately for AKB48…they are one of the most well documented idol projects of the century. Searching the outfit’s history in English means encountering a ton of early 2010s era writing about how backwards and socially toxic AKB seemed to be, what with the sailor suits and the geriatric producer trying to channel a teenage girl and the “Heavy Rotation” video. It’s almost like a game of scandal roulette — are you going to encounter one of the head-shaving episodes, or the time a fan attacked members with a handsaw, or maybe a deep cut like “Einstein Yori Dianna Agron?” There’s a lot of pitfalls an uninformed voter might come across.

Politicking — Rolling Stone Japan published what strikes me as an argument for being considered, offering an overview of AKB’s history without any of the friction along with some strategic buzzwords (page three is about “costumes built with craftsmanship,” a really Craig-Mod-y way of talking about clothes). That AKB staff itself shared it underlines what exactly it’s aim is…and honestly, if this is all potential voters see, it could help.

Takeaway — If the framing of the Rolling Stone Japan article works, that could give them a chance…but I think a cursor look at their history, lack of Western activities, and the competition make them shaky.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 25%

BE:FIRST (“Bruce Wayne” Featuring Flo Milli And ATL Jacob)

Legacy — Very young group, but one that has achieved a solid amount of sales and cultural success in the few years they’ve been together. It’s a bit funny going from “this girl group explains not just how Japanese entertainment but EVERYTHING GLOBALLY works” to “uhhhh they were on a popular reality show.”

International Presence — They’ve toured the West, which definitely counts for something, and they’ve done a lot of press with publications that get eyeballs from industry types (Rolling Stone, Billboard, etc.). Yet it dries up after that…this is a group that hasn’t really been bundled into the “new era of J-pop” wave, which I actually think is a limiting factor.

Now, though, comes the tricky part…how much does having non-Japanese guests elevate the song? Flo Milli is a known name and has been nominated for a Grammy before, while ATL Jacob won a trophy for producing Future’s “Wait for U.” By including them…does BE:FIRST’s chances also go up? Even though it doesn’t really align with the…Best Asian Pop part of the Best Asian Pop Music Performance award.

Politicking — They became voting members! I don’t know if that means others know who they are now (do the Grammy people have like an in-house magazine?), but I guess in theory that’s at least…six votes plus SKY-HI. Dang, AKB should have registered, dozens of votes left on the table.

Takeaway — The features on “Bruce Wayne” definitely add a little intrigue, but compared to other names coming up, I don’t think they have the sizzle to breakthrough. I’ll give them an extra seven percent since they can vote for themselves.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 37%

BABYMETAL — “Sunset Kiss Featuring Polyphia”)

Legacy — Arguably the most successful Japanese act globally of the 21st century? They were repping for J-pop on the world stage back when most people were unaware Japan had music (2015). If you need specifics…sold-out tours, the first Japanese album to appear in the top 10 of the Billboard 200, and previous Grammy nominations.

International Presence — See above. This is one of the most well-represented J-pop acts going, and one I actually imagine most voting members have heard of, even if it is just as “the cute metal children.”

Politicking — They are also voting members, though I’d say the fact they’ve been nominated in other categories before means they are already on voter radar…and hey, given how often artists have to wait to be honored, that could be a benefit to them.

Takeaway — Complicating all of this is the fact BABYMETAL submitted two other songs for different categories. They entered a Major Lazer remix of their song with Poppy for Best Remixed Recording…and they are again going after Best Metal Performance with “My Queen” featuring Spiritbox.

I think they care about that last one the most, and I also wonder if being in contention for those other two hurts them in the Asian category. After all, they have become recognized as a metal act, not so much “pop.” I think they have a much higher chance of being nominated in the Metal category…but given their history, I’ll still give them even odds.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 50%

f5ve (“I Choose You”)

Legacy — They…are popular on social media, that’s for sure, as long as they aren’t referencing tragic deaths.

Really though they are an extremely new group that hasn’t left much of a blip on domestic pop. However…

International Presence — International presence is all they have going for them, but they’ve got a lot. Interviews galore, all of them turning to the time-tested “a new take on J-pop” as a hook. Tours in the West. A predominantly non-Japanese fanbase. None of it is particularly huge when looked at from a Grammy voter’s perspective — give me a ballot and “appeared at an Eastern Margins festival” carries serious weight — but they have surplus in this department.

Politicking — They are one of two groups on this list to have appeared at ennichi’25, a CEIPA-related concert in Los Angeles that tied into an industry event focused on spotlighting Japanese music. This was geared for industry types, meaning f5ve could have gotten some attention there3.

Takeaway — An early hurdle for this category when it comes to establishing what it is…f5ve have found an audience outside its home country, but in the process don’t actually tie into the Japanese pop landscape that I assume this honor wants to recognize. All the attention abroad means I can’t dismiss them…but I keep thinking the equivalent of this would be launching this award 15 years ago and nominating FAKY.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 41%

Hatsune Miku  (“Miku-Maxxing” Featuring Grimes And SatapanP)

Oh man…oh man, oh man.

Legacy —The first massively successful “virtual artist.” Avatar for a singing-synthesizer AND a genuinely new genre of music that has become globally embraced. A creative muse who also partners with luxury bands, convenience stores, and whatever else can get in touch with Crypton Future Media. Arguably the most important pop “act” of the digital age?

International Presence — On the one hand…a ton. Sold-out tours, appearances at festivals like Coachella, a spot on Late Show With David Letterman, being friends with Scarlett Johansson. Tons, and I means tons, of writing about her and what she means.

But also…Hatsune Miku turns 20 next year, and there’s been so much written and recorded and simply shared about what she is, how she works, and what she represents. I’ve written about this like a dozen times in the last decade plus. Yet I think most people…and I’m going to bet A LOT of the Grammy voting pool…probably still think she’s a robot or an AI or just a character from Dragonball Z. I really think the learning curve is just too steep.

Plus, I have no idea how to factor in Grimes to this. True chaotic dash to the submission.

Politicking — Anyone can create music with Miku, so someone should draft up a song geared towards voters right now.

Takeaway — I really want Hatsune Miku to be nominated for this category. Partially because it would be hilarious, but also because…I don’t think there’s a music development out of Asia in the 21st century as genuinely radical as Miku. If you’re really trying to honor the trailblazers from this region, this characterized instrument should be in the mix.

Alas, I think Hatsune Miku is just too confusing for the voter of today (who, I’m sorry, I imagine putting in the least effort in actually learning about any of the submitted artists), and think she has the lowest odds of anyone to actually make it. That’s OK though…we can all laugh about it when she gets her lifetime achievement award 20 years from now.

Also they should have nominated “numb numb,” the Vocaloid song of the year4.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 5%

Kenshi Yonezu (“IRIS OUT”)

Legacy — The biggest J-pop artist of the last decade, and one of the poster children of the 2020s global J-pop wave. Has a song on the verge of becoming J-pop’s first “billion plays” number on YouTube. “IRIS OUT” alone smashed records once it came out last September. Plus it is the opening number to a recent box office smash.

International Presence — OK, now factor in the Chainsaw Man movie was also a global film hit, meaning a bunch of people all over heard “IRIS OUT” via the flick or streaming. That’s just one song though…Yonezu has developed an extremely passionate following online, which transformed into a sold-out world tour a few years ago with an even bigger one coming in 2027. You don’t get a billion-plus-played song on YouTube via Japan alone. Yonezu isn’t a huge media presence in terms of interviews, but he’s done enough…hell, I’ve been able to talk to him twice.

Politicking — Definitely happening…I’ve gotten an individual email (not a general “For Your Consideration” blast) touting his potential at the next Grammy Awards, so I imagine it is even stronger with those boasting actual sway. Here’s the only weakness Yonezu has…he’s not big on promotion, which means outside of interviews, he’s missed out on the kind of side happenings that help you advance in the industry.

Takeaway — First, an aside — “IRIS OUT” was also submitted for Best Song Written for Visual Media and…it should also be nominated for that. Really, given J-pop’s longstanding lust for a Grammy, it’s weird that they haven’t submitted more for this category, at least post 2016 when anime became “cool” and “semi respected.” Still an uphill battle…I know one band who did push for it, and came up short a few years ago…but now is the time, and given how I can’t think of any “Golden” level smash that should dominate, Yonezu should be in play here.

Back to the category at hand…I have this with the second highest probability of being nominated, hurt only by Yonezu’s lack of Grammy courting. One of the reasons I can’t take a lot of the other submissions seriously is because “IRIS OUT” is in play, built for this moment.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 70%

PSYCHIC FEVER (“If You’re Mine”)

Legacy — See the f5ve entry, though I think PSYCHIC FEVER has more of a footing in Japan and less globally, along with a less “vibrant” social media presence though that means they don’t have thousands of people screaming at them either. A young group with lots of potential!

International Presence — Not quite as robust as f5ve, but they’ve toured the States and I actually most associate them with Asia itself, as they’ve spent a lot of time in the region, especially Thailand. That probably means diddly squat for the Grammys, but they’ve been out there. A solid amount of interviews across traditional and new media.

Politicking — The other group that played ennichi’25. That’s about it.

Takeaway — The only way they get nominated is if the Grammy voters lean in entirely on the music itself, because (breaking my rule, but allow me) “If You’re Mine” is a great bit of hop-scotching dance-pop. I don’t think the outfit has enough else going for it…f5ve’s global outreach goes a long way…but I do applaud them submitting, because they deserve some praise for the output.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 30%

Shihori (“When I Decided Not To Die”)

Legacy — A lot of tie-up songs and tours! A very long-lasting career, and one in which she pivoted to being international in 2018.

International Presence — The same as above really. She’s played a lot of shows in the States, and is based in Los Angeles. Some interviews.

Politicking — Running her own “For Your Consideration” campaign, which I applaud! Her actual strongest attribute here is being based in LA since 2018…she’s been amongst a lot of entertainment yuckity yucks, so in theory she could already be reaching a lot of them.

Takeaway — Sorry to say this for such an emotionally vulnerable song but…no chance, too small. Shihori would need an incredible contact list to pull this off.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 1%

YOASOBI (“Orion”)

Legacy — The duo responsible for J-pop pivoting from an enclosed system to one facing the world. “IDOL” being an absolute monster hit, one that topped Billboard charts and made a lot of people unfamiliar with what was happening in the country interested. A huge act representing everything related to J-pop in the 2020s.

International Presence — Massive! World tours, including a very big one over this past summer. Appearances at festivals such as Coachella and Lollapalooza. Chart success, and tie-ups galore5. Bring anime into the discussion and woo boy, these two were so tied to that soft-power arsenal that people got annoyed at them doing too much. They went to the White House. “Orion,” the song they are putting forward for this year’s Grammy awards, is connected with the video game Overwatch. Also, they just had a sit-down chat with Tom Cruise! Is Ayase Digger-pilled?

Politicking — Here’s the biggest one of all…YOASOBI took time to do a talk event / performance at the Grammy Museum this past September. That’s the heart of everything…maybe even more than the sold-out shows and countless interviews. YOASOBI are going for this, and I think that will pay off.

Takeaway — YOASOBI also threw their hats into the ring for two other categories, though it isn’t clear if “Orion” is also the rep for those (the The Orchard site meant to lay out all submissions…kind of sucks, maybe just make a Substack next time). They are also pursuing Best Song Written for Visual Media6 and Best Music Video. Do Grammy voters know what Overwatch is?

Anyway, YOASOBI are both enough of a legacy act at this point and have made the kind of appeals aimed right at the Grammy block that I think they have a great chance of breaking through. The only weakness is “Orion” itself, not so much for the quality but because it is a lesser YOASOBI hit. A few years earlier, I think “IDOL” runs away with this award. Yet in 2026 (or 2027), I think having YOASOBI involved in the first version of this category is quite likely…and the group itself has done what they can to stay on radar.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 70%

Yoshiki (“Forever Love” With Josh Groban)

OF COURSE

Legacy — Member and driving creative force behind X JAPAN, one of the country’s most beloved rock groups. A massive star, and one who has gone well beyond his home country’s borders. Not many artists have the Imperial Family calling you up to write music, but Yoshiki has! He’s the oldest artist submitting for this category to date, and he’s accomplished a ton. He has a Hello Kitty variant for goodness sakes.

International Presence — Yoshiki simply has international presence. He has been a fixture of the global music industry for a long time now. I can’t fill this paragraph with everything he’s done, that would be boring…this man was about to duet with Axl Rose before bad weather cancelled it, and he was heartbroken. I’ve seen him play piano at Dodger Stadium and to a room of 30 people at SXSW. He’s everywhere all at once.

Politicking — I don’t even know if you can call what Yoshiki does “politicking,” it’s closer to breathing.

Yoshiki has hovered around the Grammy Museum for years. He’s done multiple interviews with the now defunct Grammy.com. My god, the number of interviews he has done with media over the years. I propose a different definition for “industry plant” in relation to Yoshiki — nobody set him up for any of this, but rather he found a space and set his roots down and wrapped around everything in his vicinity.

He’s the ultimate Japanese insider within the music industry, and that alone puts him within striking distance of a nomination.

Takeaway — We haven’t even gotten to the song! It’s a cover of X JAPAN’s “Forever Love,” but with Josh Groban singing in English AND Japanese. While I was writing this post I got this email!

(Josh Groban does a good job singing in Japanese, he deserves a ribbon for that, at least).

This is the biggest wildcard of the bunch…it’s one of the most well-connected Japanese artists in the world covering his own hit with Josh Groban. If you squint you could argue giving this the Grammy because the organization has ignored Asian music for so long and here’s a big ballad beloved on that side of the world…but we know that white guy singing, so that’s nice.

If this gets nominated (in any of those categories), it’s a triumph of networking. I am not ruling it out.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 55%

Yuki Chiba And Lil Moshpit (“Annyeonghaseyo”)

Legacy — Assuming people realize he used to go by KOHH and look into that…one of the biggest Japanese rappers of the last 15 years, with multiple viral hits under his belt. Plus, for “Annyeonghaseyo,” he’s linked up with the Korean producer (and GroovyRoom member) Lil Moshpit for a continental exchange.

International Presence — Now here’s a complicated one! Yuki Chiba moved to LA in the last year and a half in order to pursue a Grammy (table that), and he’s performed a bit in the West too…though I’ve also heard he’s leaned into his “ambient rap” which has left many confused. Still, “Team Tomodachi” had a moment, and he’s taking steps to get his name out globally even if some are questionable.

Then you have the whole Steel Ball Run debacle, but I have a feeling voters aren’t following the happenings in the JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure universe too closely.

Takeaway — We’ve reached the end, so my main J-Polymarket declaration is…I think Yonezu and YOASOBI have equal odds to make it and I think there’s a strong chance both get to the nomination round.

My spoiler is Yuki Chiba. Again, nobody voting on this knows about Steel Ball Run. They see the one actual rapper in the entire field (let me know if I’m wrong, but I don’t hear one from any other country) working with a South Korean producer for a moment of cross-border (non-Groban category) interaction that makes them interested. Chiba has made gestures at appealing to the Grammy voters…such as relocating his entire life…and while I don’t think he’s done anything as drastic as going to the Grammy Museum, he might be more involved than we think.

Odds Of Being Nominated — 60%

Artists Who I Think Might Have Submitted (But For Which I Have Zero Proof, So Let’s Just Call This The Speculation Center)

I’ve seen Hikaru Utada mentioned as submitting for the Asian Pop category…but only via some Twitter account, which makes me question if they really put their Chibi Maruko-chan song to the voters. I guess to add to that…full disclosure, I technically help with English PR for Utada and I have heard nothing about this. Not to say I would know (they wouldn’t tell me) but I would be a bit surprised if it was a complete mystery to the company I work with.

That said…if Utada did submit it would present the ultimate “do we just honor a J-pop legend” dilemma. This would be their Two Against Nature moment.

Meanwhile, Atarashii Gakko! seem like a natural candidate for this. They check many of the boxes of acts noted above, with plenty of assorted songs from the last year to shove forward. I wouldn’t put them past Yonezu or YOASOBI, but I would also not be surprised to see them in the mix.

Save for AKB48, very few Universal Music Japan artists have been revealed as submitting. I…find that hard to believe, that they would simply ignore this opportunity (unless the BTS connection is that strong). So I think a few are in play. Fujii Kaze picked a hell of year to release an English-language album, but it makes me think “It’s Alright” is a play at the Grammys, being a detour from where he’s been for the last 12 months.

Then there’s Ado. When this whole category was revealed, fansites devoted to the identity-hiding singer speculated she could definitely win it! Based on my own experience…full disclosure, I have at times written official English bios for Ado, though I have not done so in a very long time now…I would be surprised if her team didn’t at least explore the possibility. I picture “Vivarium” being the submission if they did go for it, and honestly Ado’s odds are up there with YOASOBI and Yonezu…she’s a major player in how J-pop has traveled this decade, with ambitious world tours and assorted industry-courting events (Zipangu, for example) under her belt.

Last, there’s the ultimate unexpected — Mrs. GREEN APPLE.

It’s not clear how much this trio cares about international attention. When I talked to Motoki Ohmori, he told me how they want people to come across their music naturally, without being pushed (and even bristling against the need for anime tie-ups). They are so zeroed in on Japan, they might not care about the Grammys at all.

Except…they’ve been to the ceremony itself, and actually modeled one of their tours (Ceremony) after it. The existence of Project Mrs. Green Apple (PMGA) implies interest in expanding abroad for quite some time. Lucian Grainge, head of Universal, has met them and talked about them, which given his demi-god status within the industry carries a lot of weight. They are the most popular group in Japan, and “Brand New” (above) came out just before the cut off for eligibility (though come on, give “lulu” its love).

I think Mrs. GREEN APPLE have been so laser-focused at home that they maybe skipped this…and could approach it next year…but I also would not shocked to hear their name mentioned at the nominees press conference. Not a bad long shot.

Written by Patrick St. Michel (patrickstmichel@gmail.com)
Twitter — @mbmelodies
Check out the Best Of 2026 Spotify Playlist here!